Primeira LigaSaturday, October 10 · 09:30 PM · 8th matchday
Academico Viseu – Estoril
Academico Viseu
7th · attack 1.14 · defence 0.99
Estoril
18th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Academico Viseu favourites for Academico Viseu – Estoril, at 51%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 09:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Academico Viseu win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Estoril win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.70 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.14 for Estoril, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.70 for Academico Viseu, 1.14 for Estoril.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Academico Viseu wins; above it, Estoril wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Academico Viseu goals in rows, Estoril goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Academico Viseu v Estoril?
Academico Viseu, at 51%. The full split is Academico Viseu 51%, draw 23%, Estoril 26%.
What is the most likely score in Academico Viseu v Estoril?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Academico Viseu v Estoril?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.70 for Academico Viseu and 1.14 for Estoril.
Will both teams score in Academico Viseu v Estoril?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Academico Viseu keep a clean sheet or Estoril fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.