Premier LeagueMonday, October 19 · 09:00 PM · 7th matchday
Tottenham Hotspur – Coventry City
Tottenham Hotspur
20th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.28
Coventry City
18th · attack 0.47 · defence 1.45
Our model makes Tottenham Hotspur favourites for Tottenham Hotspur – Coventry City, at 61%. Kick-off October 19, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Tottenham Hotspur win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Coventry City win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Tottenham Hotspur and 0.60 for Coventry City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.62 for Tottenham Hotspur, 0.60 for Coventry City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Tottenham Hotspur wins; above it, Coventry City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Tottenham Hotspur goals in rows, Coventry City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City?
Tottenham Hotspur, at 61%. The full split is Tottenham Hotspur 61%, draw 27%, Coventry City 12%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City?
1–0, which comes up in 16.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Tottenham Hotspur and 0.60 for Coventry City.
Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. Tottenham Hotspur keep a clean sheet or Coventry City fail to score in the remaining 63%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.