Premier LeagueSunday, October 25 · 05:30 PM · 8th matchday
Sunderland – Leeds United
Sunderland
14th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
Leeds United
5th · attack 1.05 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Leeds United favourites for Sunderland – Leeds United, at 37% — but only 3.9% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Leeds United win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.14 goals for Sunderland and 1.22 for Leeds United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.14 for Sunderland, 1.22 for Leeds United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, Leeds United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sunderland goals in rows, Leeds United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v Leeds United?
Leeds United, at 37%. The full split is Sunderland 33%, draw 31%, Leeds United 37%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v Leeds United?
1–1, which comes up in 14.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Leeds United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.14 for Sunderland and 1.22 for Leeds United.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v Leeds United?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or Leeds United fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.