Premier LeagueSaturday, October 10 · 04:00 PM · 6th matchday
Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunderland
14th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion, at 45%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 04:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sunderland win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Brighton & Hove Albion win 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Sunderland and 1.59 for Brighton & Hove Albion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.18 for Sunderland, 1.59 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sunderland wins; above it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sunderland goals in rows, Brighton & Hove Albion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion, at 45%. The full split is Sunderland 27%, draw 27%, Brighton & Hove Albion 45%.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Sunderland and 1.59 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Will both teams score in Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet or Brighton & Hove Albion fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.