Premier LeagueSunday, October 18 · 05:30 PM · 7th matchday
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
13th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.03
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.68
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Nottingham Forest – Arsenal, at 49%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Nottingham Forest win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Arsenal win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 0.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.41 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.83 for Nottingham Forest, 1.41 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nottingham Forest wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nottingham Forest goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
Arsenal, at 49%. The full split is Nottingham Forest 21%, draw 30%, Arsenal 49%.
What is the most likely score in Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 0.83 for Nottingham Forest and 1.41 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.