Premier LeagueSaturday, October 17 · 06:30 PM · 7th matchday
Newcastle United – Aston Villa
Newcastle United
9th · attack 1.26 · defence 1.23
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Newcastle United favourites for Newcastle United – Aston Villa, at 45%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Newcastle United win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Aston Villa win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.76 goals for Newcastle United and 1.41 for Aston Villa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.76 for Newcastle United, 1.41 for Aston Villa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Newcastle United wins; above it, Aston Villa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Newcastle United goals in rows, Aston Villa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Newcastle United v Aston Villa?
Newcastle United, at 45%. The full split is Newcastle United 45%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 30%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle United v Aston Villa?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle United v Aston Villa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.76 for Newcastle United and 1.41 for Aston Villa.
Will both teams score in Newcastle United v Aston Villa?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet or Aston Villa fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.