Premier LeagueSaturday, October 10 · 06:30 PM · 6th matchday
Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.10
Tottenham Hotspur
20th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.28
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – Tottenham Hotspur, at 60%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Tottenham Hotspur win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.03 goals for Manchester United and 1.01 for Tottenham Hotspur, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.03 for Manchester United, 1.01 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, Tottenham Hotspur wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Manchester United goals in rows, Tottenham Hotspur goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur?
Manchester United, at 60%. The full split is Manchester United 60%, draw 23%, Tottenham Hotspur 17%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.03 for Manchester United and 1.01 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or Tottenham Hotspur fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.