Premier LeagueSunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.10
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – AFC Bournemouth, at 47%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and AFC Bournemouth win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.74 goals for Manchester United and 1.28 for AFC Bournemouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.74 for Manchester United, 1.28 for AFC Bournemouth.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, AFC Bournemouth wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Manchester United goals in rows, AFC Bournemouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth?
Manchester United, at 47%. The full split is Manchester United 47%, draw 26%, AFC Bournemouth 27%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.74 for Manchester United and 1.28 for AFC Bournemouth.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or AFC Bournemouth fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.