Premier LeagueSaturday, October 17 · 04:00 PM · 7th matchday
Manchester City – Ipswich Town
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.83
Ipswich Town
11th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.65
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Manchester City – Ipswich Town, at 83%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 04:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester City win 83% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Ipswich Town win 5%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 3.20 goals for Manchester City and 0.79 for Ipswich Town, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.20 for Manchester City, 0.79 for Ipswich Town.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester City wins; above it, Ipswich Town wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Manchester City goals in rows, Ipswich Town goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester City v Ipswich Town?
Manchester City, at 83%. The full split is Manchester City 83%, draw 12%, Ipswich Town 5%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City v Ipswich Town?
3–0, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v Ipswich Town?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 76% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 3.20 for Manchester City and 0.79 for Ipswich Town.
Will both teams score in Manchester City v Ipswich Town?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet or Ipswich Town fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.