Premier LeagueSunday, October 11 · 05:30 PM · 6th matchday
Liverpool – Manchester City
Liverpool
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.83
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Liverpool – Manchester City, at 43%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Liverpool win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Manchester City win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Liverpool and 1.63 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 61%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Liverpool, 1.63 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Liverpool wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Liverpool goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Manchester City?
Manchester City, at 43%. The full split is Liverpool 30%, draw 27%, Manchester City 43%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool v Manchester City?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Liverpool and 1.63 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 61% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 39%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.