Premier LeagueSunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Liverpool – Brighton & Hove Albion, at 42%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Liverpool win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Brighton & Hove Albion win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.65 goals for Liverpool and 1.40 for Brighton & Hove Albion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.65 for Liverpool, 1.40 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Liverpool wins; above it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Liverpool goals in rows, Brighton & Hove Albion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Liverpool, at 42%. The full split is Liverpool 42%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 31%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.65 for Liverpool and 1.40 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Will both teams score in Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet or Brighton & Hove Albion fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.