Premier LeagueSunday, October 18 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
Leeds United – Manchester United
Leeds United
5th · attack 1.05 · defence 0.98
Manchester United
12th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Leeds United favourites for Leeds United – Manchester United, at 38%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Leeds United win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Manchester United win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Leeds United and 1.29 for Manchester United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.41 for Leeds United, 1.29 for Manchester United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Leeds United wins; above it, Manchester United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Leeds United goals in rows, Manchester United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Leeds United v Manchester United?
Leeds United, at 38%. The full split is Leeds United 38%, draw 28%, Manchester United 33%.
What is the most likely score in Leeds United v Manchester United?
1–1, which comes up in 13.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds United v Manchester United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Leeds United and 1.29 for Manchester United.
Will both teams score in Leeds United v Manchester United?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Leeds United keep a clean sheet or Manchester United fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.