Premier LeagueFriday, October 23 · 09:00 PM · 8th matchday
Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town
11th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.65
Nottingham Forest
13th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Nottingham Forest favourites for Ipswich Town – Nottingham Forest, at 47%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Ipswich Town win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Nottingham Forest win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.20 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.65 for Nottingham Forest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.20 for Ipswich Town, 1.65 for Nottingham Forest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ipswich Town wins; above it, Nottingham Forest wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Ipswich Town goals in rows, Nottingham Forest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest, at 47%. The full split is Ipswich Town 27%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 47%.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.20 for Ipswich Town and 1.65 for Nottingham Forest.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Ipswich Town keep a clean sheet or Nottingham Forest fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.