Premier LeagueSunday, October 11 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Hull City – Everton
Hull City
8th · attack 0.83 · defence 0.99
Everton
7th · attack 0.95 · defence 0.98
Our model sees no favourite in Hull City – Everton: the draw is the single most likely outcome, at 35%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Hull City win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 35% and Everton win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–0, in 16.1% of simulations.
We expect 0.99 goals for Hull City and 0.94 for Everton, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 30% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.99 for Hull City, 0.94 for Everton.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hull City wins; above it, Everton wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Hull City goals in rows, Everton goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hull City v Everton?
Neither side. The draw is the most likely single outcome at 35%, against 34% for Hull City and 31% for Everton.
What is the most likely score in Hull City v Everton?
0–0, which comes up in 16.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hull City v Everton?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 30% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 59% of the time. Expected goals are 0.99 for Hull City and 0.94 for Everton.
Will both teams score in Hull City v Everton?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Hull City keep a clean sheet or Everton fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.