Premier LeagueSunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Hull City – Brentford
Hull City
8th · attack 0.83 · defence 0.99
Brentford
4th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Brentford favourites for Hull City – Brentford, at 38%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Hull City win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Brentford win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.06 goals for Hull City and 1.22 for Brentford, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.06 for Hull City, 1.22 for Brentford.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hull City wins; above it, Brentford wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Hull City goals in rows, Brentford goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hull City v Brentford?
Brentford, at 38%. The full split is Hull City 30%, draw 31%, Brentford 38%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City v Brentford?
1–1, which comes up in 14.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hull City v Brentford?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.06 for Hull City and 1.22 for Brentford.
Will both teams score in Hull City v Brentford?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Hull City keep a clean sheet or Brentford fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.