Premier LeagueSunday, October 11 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Nottingham Forest
13th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Nottingham Forest favourites for Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest, at 36% — but only 2.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Nottingham Forest win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.26 for Nottingham Forest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.21 for Crystal Palace, 1.26 for Nottingham Forest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, Nottingham Forest wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, Nottingham Forest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest, at 36%. The full split is Crystal Palace 34%, draw 30%, Nottingham Forest 36%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
1–1, which comes up in 14.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for Crystal Palace and 1.26 for Nottingham Forest.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or Nottingham Forest fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.