Premier LeagueSunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Crystal Palace – Newcastle United
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Newcastle United
9th · attack 1.26 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Newcastle United favourites for Crystal Palace – Newcastle United, at 40%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Crystal Palace win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Newcastle United win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.44 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.58 for Newcastle United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.44 for Crystal Palace, 1.58 for Newcastle United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Crystal Palace wins; above it, Newcastle United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Crystal Palace goals in rows, Newcastle United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Crystal Palace v Newcastle United?
Newcastle United, at 40%. The full split is Crystal Palace 34%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 40%.
What is the most likely score in Crystal Palace v Newcastle United?
1–1, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Newcastle United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.44 for Crystal Palace and 1.58 for Newcastle United.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace v Newcastle United?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet or Newcastle United fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.