Premier LeagueMonday, October 12 · 09:00 PM · 6th matchday
Coventry City – Newcastle United
Coventry City
18th · attack 0.47 · defence 1.45
Newcastle United
9th · attack 1.26 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Newcastle United favourites for Coventry City – Newcastle United, at 63%. Kick-off October 12, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Coventry City win 13% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Newcastle United win 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 0.71 goals for Coventry City and 1.83 for Newcastle United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.71 for Coventry City, 1.83 for Newcastle United.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Coventry City wins; above it, Newcastle United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Coventry City goals in rows, Newcastle United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Coventry City v Newcastle United?
Newcastle United, at 63%. The full split is Coventry City 13%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 63%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City v Newcastle United?
0–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Newcastle United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 0.71 for Coventry City and 1.83 for Newcastle United.
Will both teams score in Coventry City v Newcastle United?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Coventry City keep a clean sheet or Newcastle United fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.