Premier LeagueSaturday, October 24 · 04:00 PM · 8th matchday
Coventry City – Fulham
Coventry City
18th · attack 0.47 · defence 1.45
Fulham
19th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Fulham favourites for Coventry City – Fulham, at 53%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 04:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Coventry City win 16% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Fulham win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 17.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.63 goals for Coventry City and 1.37 for Fulham, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 32% of the time and both teams scoring 36%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.63 for Coventry City, 1.37 for Fulham.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Coventry City wins; above it, Fulham wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Coventry City goals in rows, Fulham goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Coventry City v Fulham?
Fulham, at 53%. The full split is Coventry City 16%, draw 31%, Fulham 53%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City v Fulham?
0–1, which comes up in 17.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coventry City v Fulham?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 32% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 61% of the time. Expected goals are 0.63 for Coventry City and 1.37 for Fulham.
Will both teams score in Coventry City v Fulham?
Both teams score in 36% of simulations. Coventry City keep a clean sheet or Fulham fail to score in the remaining 64%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.