Premier LeagueSaturday, October 24 · 06:30 PM · 8th matchday
Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea
10th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.26
Tottenham Hotspur
20th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.28
Our model makes Chelsea favourites for Chelsea – Tottenham Hotspur, at 55%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Chelsea win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Tottenham Hotspur win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.97 goals for Chelsea and 1.16 for Tottenham Hotspur, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.97 for Chelsea, 1.16 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Chelsea wins; above it, Tottenham Hotspur wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Chelsea goals in rows, Tottenham Hotspur goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea, at 55%. The full split is Chelsea 55%, draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 21%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.97 for Chelsea and 1.16 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Will both teams score in Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet or Tottenham Hotspur fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.