Premier LeagueSunday, October 18 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace
Brighton & Hove Albion
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 1.02
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace, at 62%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Brighton & Hove Albion win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Crystal Palace win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.09 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.99 for Crystal Palace, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.09 for Brighton & Hove Albion, 0.99 for Crystal Palace.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brighton & Hove Albion wins; above it, Crystal Palace wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Brighton & Hove Albion goals in rows, Crystal Palace goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace?
Brighton & Hove Albion, at 62%. The full split is Brighton & Hove Albion 62%, draw 22%, Crystal Palace 16%.
What is the most likely score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace?
1–1, which comes up in 10.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.09 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.99 for Crystal Palace.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Brighton & Hove Albion keep a clean sheet or Crystal Palace fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.