Premier LeagueSaturday, October 17 · 04:00 PM · 7th matchday
Brentford – Liverpool
Brentford
4th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.05
Liverpool
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Brentford favourites for Brentford – Liverpool, at 39%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 04:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Brentford win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Liverpool win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.53 goals for Brentford and 1.39 for Liverpool, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.53 for Brentford, 1.39 for Liverpool.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brentford wins; above it, Liverpool wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Brentford goals in rows, Liverpool goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brentford v Liverpool?
Brentford, at 39%. The full split is Brentford 39%, draw 27%, Liverpool 33%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford v Liverpool?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Liverpool?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.53 for Brentford and 1.39 for Liverpool.
Will both teams score in Brentford v Liverpool?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Brentford keep a clean sheet or Liverpool fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.