Premier LeagueSaturday, October 24 · 01:30 PM · 8th matchday
Aston Villa – Manchester City
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.16
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.60 · defence 0.83
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for Aston Villa – Manchester City, at 53%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 01:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Manchester City win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.15 goals for Aston Villa and 1.85 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.15 for Aston Villa, 1.85 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Manchester City?
Manchester City, at 53%. The full split is Aston Villa 22%, draw 25%, Manchester City 53%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Manchester City?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.15 for Aston Villa and 1.85 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.