Premier LeagueSaturday, October 24 · 04:00 PM · 8th matchday
Arsenal – Everton
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.68
Everton
7th · attack 0.95 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – Everton, at 60%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 04:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Everton win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 15.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for Arsenal and 0.65 for Everton, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time and both teams scoring 39%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.61 for Arsenal, 0.65 for Everton.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Everton wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Everton goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v Everton?
Arsenal, at 60%. The full split is Arsenal 60%, draw 27%, Everton 13%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v Everton?
1–0, which comes up in 15.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Everton?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 39% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for Arsenal and 0.65 for Everton.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v Everton?
Both teams score in 39% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or Everton fail to score in the remaining 61%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.