Premier LeagueSunday, October 18 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
AFC Bournemouth – Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Sunderland
14th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for AFC Bournemouth – Sunderland, at 50%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, AFC Bournemouth win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Sunderland win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 1.04 for Sunderland, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for AFC Bournemouth, 1.04 for Sunderland.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AFC Bournemouth wins; above it, Sunderland wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
AFC Bournemouth goals in rows, Sunderland goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland?
AFC Bournemouth, at 50%. The full split is AFC Bournemouth 50%, draw 27%, Sunderland 23%.
What is the most likely score in AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.04 for Sunderland.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet or Sunderland fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.