Ligue 1Sunday, October 11 · 08:45 PM · 6th matchday
Troyes – Olympique Marseille
Troyes
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.43
Olympique Marseille
17th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Troyes – Olympique Marseille, at 58%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Troyes win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Olympique Marseille win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.07 goals for Troyes and 1.96 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.07 for Troyes, 1.96 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Troyes wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Troyes goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Troyes v Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille, at 58%. The full split is Troyes 20%, draw 23%, Olympique Marseille 58%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes v Olympique Marseille?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Troyes v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.07 for Troyes and 1.96 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Troyes v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Troyes keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.