Ligue 1Saturday, October 17 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
Troyes – Lens
Troyes
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.43
Lens
15th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Lens favourites for Troyes – Lens, at 56%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Troyes win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Lens win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 0.97 goals for Troyes and 1.79 for Lens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.97 for Troyes, 1.79 for Lens.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Troyes wins; above it, Lens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Troyes goals in rows, Lens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Troyes v Lens?
Lens, at 56%. The full split is Troyes 20%, draw 24%, Lens 56%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes v Lens?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Troyes v Lens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 0.97 for Troyes and 1.79 for Lens.
Will both teams score in Troyes v Lens?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Troyes keep a clean sheet or Lens fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.