Ligue 1Saturday, October 24 · 05:15 PM · 8th matchday
Toulouse – Troyes
Toulouse
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.13
Troyes
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.43
Our model makes Toulouse favourites for Toulouse – Troyes, at 58%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Toulouse win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Troyes win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.84 goals for Toulouse and 0.96 for Troyes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.84 for Toulouse, 0.96 for Troyes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Toulouse wins; above it, Troyes wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Toulouse goals in rows, Troyes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Toulouse v Troyes?
Toulouse, at 58%. The full split is Toulouse 58%, draw 24%, Troyes 19%.
What is the most likely score in Toulouse v Troyes?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Toulouse v Troyes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.84 for Toulouse and 0.96 for Troyes.
Will both teams score in Toulouse v Troyes?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Toulouse keep a clean sheet or Troyes fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.