Ligue 1Saturday, October 17 · 05:15 PM · 7th matchday
Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
8th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.13
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain, at 55%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Strasbourg win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Paris Saint Germain win 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Strasbourg and 2.02 for Paris Saint Germain, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Strasbourg, 2.02 for Paris Saint Germain.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Strasbourg wins; above it, Paris Saint Germain wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Strasbourg goals in rows, Paris Saint Germain goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain, at 55%. The full split is Strasbourg 22%, draw 22%, Paris Saint Germain 55%.
What is the most likely score in Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Strasbourg and 2.02 for Paris Saint Germain.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Strasbourg keep a clean sheet or Paris Saint Germain fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.