Ligue 1Sunday, October 11 · 05:15 PM · 6th matchday
Rennes – Auxerre
Rennes
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
Auxerre
10th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Rennes favourites for Rennes – Auxerre, at 57%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Rennes win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Auxerre win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.89 goals for Rennes and 1.02 for Auxerre, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.89 for Rennes, 1.02 for Auxerre.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rennes wins; above it, Auxerre wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Rennes goals in rows, Auxerre goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rennes v Auxerre?
Rennes, at 57%. The full split is Rennes 57%, draw 23%, Auxerre 20%.
What is the most likely score in Rennes v Auxerre?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rennes v Auxerre?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.89 for Rennes and 1.02 for Auxerre.
Will both teams score in Rennes v Auxerre?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Rennes keep a clean sheet or Auxerre fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.