Ligue 1Sunday, October 25 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Olympique Lyonnais
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais, at 63%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paris Saint Germain win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Olympique Lyonnais win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.27 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.10 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.27 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.10 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris Saint Germain wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Paris Saint Germain goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint Germain v Olympique Lyonnais?
Paris Saint Germain, at 63%. The full split is Paris Saint Germain 63%, draw 20%, Olympique Lyonnais 17%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain v Olympique Lyonnais?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.27 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.10 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.