Ligue 1Saturday, October 10 · 08:45 PM · 6th matchday
Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Le Mans
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.49
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans, at 84%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paris Saint Germain win 84% of the time, the draw comes up 11% and Le Mans win 6%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 3.27 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.82 for Le Mans, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 77% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 3.27 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.82 for Le Mans.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris Saint Germain wins; above it, Le Mans wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Paris Saint Germain goals in rows, Le Mans goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain, at 84%. The full split is Paris Saint Germain 84%, draw 11%, Le Mans 6%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans?
3–0, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 77% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 3.27 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.82 for Le Mans.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet or Le Mans fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.