Ligue 1Sunday, October 18 · 05:15 PM · 7th matchday
Paris – Rennes
Paris
3rd · attack 1.11 · defence 1.05
Rennes
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Paris favourites for Paris – Rennes, at 40%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paris win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Rennes win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.48 goals for Paris and 1.36 for Rennes, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.48 for Paris, 1.36 for Rennes.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paris wins; above it, Rennes wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Paris goals in rows, Rennes goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paris v Rennes?
Paris, at 40%. The full split is Paris 40%, draw 26%, Rennes 34%.
What is the most likely score in Paris v Rennes?
1–1, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris v Rennes?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.48 for Paris and 1.36 for Rennes.
Will both teams score in Paris v Rennes?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Paris keep a clean sheet or Rennes fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.