Ligue 1Sunday, October 25 · 05:15 PM · 8th matchday
Olympique Marseille – Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
17th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.03
Le Havre
18th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.21
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Olympique Marseille – Le Havre, at 64%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Marseille win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Le Havre win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.05 goals for Olympique Marseille and 0.86 for Le Havre, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.05 for Olympique Marseille, 0.86 for Le Havre.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Marseille wins; above it, Le Havre wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Olympique Marseille goals in rows, Le Havre goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Marseille v Le Havre?
Olympique Marseille, at 64%. The full split is Olympique Marseille 64%, draw 21%, Le Havre 14%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Marseille v Le Havre?
2–0, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Marseille v Le Havre?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 2.05 for Olympique Marseille and 0.86 for Le Havre.
Will both teams score in Olympique Marseille v Le Havre?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Olympique Marseille keep a clean sheet or Le Havre fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.