Ligue 1Sunday, October 18 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
Olympique Lyonnais – Nice
Olympique Lyonnais
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Nice
14th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Olympique Lyonnais – Nice, at 52%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Lyonnais win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Nice win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.06 for Nice, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.73 for Olympique Lyonnais, 1.06 for Nice.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Lyonnais wins; above it, Nice wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Olympique Lyonnais goals in rows, Nice goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Lyonnais v Nice?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 52%. The full split is Olympique Lyonnais 52%, draw 25%, Nice 23%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais v Nice?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Lyonnais v Nice?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.06 for Nice.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais v Nice?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Olympique Lyonnais keep a clean sheet or Nice fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.