Ligue 1Sunday, October 11 · 03:00 PM · 6th matchday
Nice – Strasbourg
Nice
14th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.05
Strasbourg
8th · attack 1.21 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Nice favourites for Nice – Strasbourg, at 40%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Nice win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Strasbourg win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.43 goals for Nice and 1.26 for Strasbourg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.43 for Nice, 1.26 for Strasbourg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nice wins; above it, Strasbourg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nice goals in rows, Strasbourg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nice v Strasbourg?
Nice, at 40%. The full split is Nice 40%, draw 27%, Strasbourg 33%.
What is the most likely score in Nice v Strasbourg?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nice v Strasbourg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.43 for Nice and 1.26 for Strasbourg.
Will both teams score in Nice v Strasbourg?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Nice keep a clean sheet or Strasbourg fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.