Ligue 1Sunday, October 25 · 03:00 PM · 8th matchday
Monaco – LOSC Lille
Monaco
1st · attack 1.42 · defence 1.07
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.18 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Monaco – LOSC Lille, at 42%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Monaco win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and LOSC Lille win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for Monaco and 1.26 for LOSC Lille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.50 for Monaco, 1.26 for LOSC Lille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Monaco wins; above it, LOSC Lille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Monaco goals in rows, LOSC Lille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Monaco v LOSC Lille?
Monaco, at 42%. The full split is Monaco 42%, draw 26%, LOSC Lille 31%.
What is the most likely score in Monaco v LOSC Lille?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monaco v LOSC Lille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for Monaco and 1.26 for LOSC Lille.
Will both teams score in Monaco v LOSC Lille?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Monaco keep a clean sheet or LOSC Lille fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.