Ligue 1Saturday, October 17 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
LOSC Lille – Brest
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.18 · defence 0.86
Brest
11th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.22
Our model makes LOSC Lille favourites for LOSC Lille – Brest, at 57%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, LOSC Lille win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Brest win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for LOSC Lille and 0.93 for Brest, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.77 for LOSC Lille, 0.93 for Brest.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LOSC Lille wins; above it, Brest wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
LOSC Lille goals in rows, Brest goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LOSC Lille v Brest?
LOSC Lille, at 57%. The full split is LOSC Lille 57%, draw 24%, Brest 19%.
What is the most likely score in LOSC Lille v Brest?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LOSC Lille v Brest?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for LOSC Lille and 0.93 for Brest.
Will both teams score in LOSC Lille v Brest?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. LOSC Lille keep a clean sheet or Brest fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.