Ligue 1Saturday, October 10 · 08:45 PM · 6th matchday
Lorient – Paris
Lorient
12th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.25
Paris
3rd · attack 1.11 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Paris favourites for Lorient – Paris, at 38% — but only 3.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lorient win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Paris win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Lorient and 1.38 for Paris, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for Lorient, 1.38 for Paris.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lorient wins; above it, Paris wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lorient goals in rows, Paris goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lorient v Paris?
Paris, at 38%. The full split is Lorient 35%, draw 27%, Paris 38%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient v Paris?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lorient v Paris?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Lorient and 1.38 for Paris.
Will both teams score in Lorient v Paris?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Lorient keep a clean sheet or Paris fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.