Ligue 1Sunday, October 18 · 05:15 PM · 7th matchday
Lorient – Monaco
Lorient
12th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.25
Monaco
1st · attack 1.42 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Lorient – Monaco, at 47%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lorient win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Monaco win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Lorient and 1.77 for Monaco, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Lorient, 1.77 for Monaco.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lorient wins; above it, Monaco wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lorient goals in rows, Monaco goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lorient v Monaco?
Monaco, at 47%. The full split is Lorient 29%, draw 24%, Monaco 47%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient v Monaco?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lorient v Monaco?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Lorient and 1.77 for Monaco.
Will both teams score in Lorient v Monaco?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Lorient keep a clean sheet or Monaco fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.