Ligue 1Saturday, October 24 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Lens – Paris
Lens
15th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.93
Paris
3rd · attack 1.11 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Lens favourites for Lens – Paris, at 51%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lens win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Paris win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Lens and 1.02 for Paris, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.62 for Lens, 1.02 for Paris.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Paris wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Paris goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lens v Paris?
Lens, at 51%. The full split is Lens 51%, draw 26%, Paris 23%.
What is the most likely score in Lens v Paris?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Paris?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Lens and 1.02 for Paris.
Will both teams score in Lens v Paris?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Lens keep a clean sheet or Paris fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.