Ligue 1Friday, October 9 · 08:45 PM · 6th matchday
Lens – Olympique Lyonnais
Lens
15th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.93
Olympique Lyonnais
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Our model makes Lens favourites for Lens – Olympique Lyonnais, at 45%. Kick-off October 9, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Lens win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Olympique Lyonnais win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.60 goals for Lens and 1.24 for Olympique Lyonnais, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.60 for Lens, 1.24 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Olympique Lyonnais wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Olympique Lyonnais goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lens v Olympique Lyonnais?
Lens, at 45%. The full split is Lens 45%, draw 26%, Olympique Lyonnais 29%.
What is the most likely score in Lens v Olympique Lyonnais?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Olympique Lyonnais?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.60 for Lens and 1.24 for Olympique Lyonnais.
Will both teams score in Lens v Olympique Lyonnais?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Lens keep a clean sheet or Olympique Lyonnais fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.