Ligue 1Friday, October 16 · 08:45 PM · 7th matchday
Le Mans – Toulouse
Le Mans
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.49
Toulouse
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Toulouse favourites for Le Mans – Toulouse, at 41%. Kick-off October 16, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Le Mans win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Toulouse win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for Le Mans and 1.56 for Toulouse, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for Le Mans, 1.56 for Toulouse.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Mans wins; above it, Toulouse wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Mans goals in rows, Toulouse goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Mans v Toulouse?
Toulouse, at 41%. The full split is Le Mans 33%, draw 26%, Toulouse 41%.
What is the most likely score in Le Mans v Toulouse?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Mans v Toulouse?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for Le Mans and 1.56 for Toulouse.
Will both teams score in Le Mans v Toulouse?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Le Mans keep a clean sheet or Toulouse fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.