Ligue 1Friday, October 30 · 07:00 PM · 9th matchday
Le Havre – Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
18th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.21
Paris Saint Germain
6th · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Le Havre – Paris Saint Germain, at 67%. Kick-off October 30, 2026, 07:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Le Havre win 13% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Paris Saint Germain win 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.85 goals for Le Havre and 2.14 for Paris Saint Germain, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.85 for Le Havre, 2.14 for Paris Saint Germain.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Havre wins; above it, Paris Saint Germain wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Havre goals in rows, Paris Saint Germain goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain, at 67%. The full split is Le Havre 13%, draw 20%, Paris Saint Germain 67%.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain?
0–2, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 0.85 for Le Havre and 2.14 for Paris Saint Germain.
Will both teams score in Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Le Havre keep a clean sheet or Paris Saint Germain fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.