Ligue 1Sunday, October 18 · 05:15 PM · 7th matchday
Le Havre – Auxerre
Le Havre
18th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.21
Auxerre
10th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Le Havre favourites for Le Havre – Auxerre, at 38% — but only 4.3% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Le Havre win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Auxerre win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Le Havre and 1.13 for Auxerre, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Le Havre, 1.13 for Auxerre.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Le Havre wins; above it, Auxerre wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Le Havre goals in rows, Auxerre goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Le Havre v Auxerre?
Le Havre, at 38%. The full split is Le Havre 38%, draw 29%, Auxerre 33%.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre v Auxerre?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Le Havre v Auxerre?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Le Havre and 1.13 for Auxerre.
Will both teams score in Le Havre v Auxerre?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Le Havre keep a clean sheet or Auxerre fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.