Ligue 1Friday, October 23 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Brest – Nice
Brest
11th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.22
Nice
14th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Brest favourites for Brest – Nice, at 40%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Brest win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Nice win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Brest and 1.25 for Nice, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.40 for Brest, 1.25 for Nice.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brest wins; above it, Nice wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Brest goals in rows, Nice goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brest v Nice?
Brest, at 40%. The full split is Brest 40%, draw 27%, Nice 33%.
What is the most likely score in Brest v Nice?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brest v Nice?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Brest and 1.25 for Nice.
Will both teams score in Brest v Nice?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Brest keep a clean sheet or Nice fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.