Ligue 1Sunday, October 25 · 05:15 PM · 8th matchday
Auxerre – Le Mans
Auxerre
10th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.18
Le Mans
9th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.49
Our model makes Auxerre favourites for Auxerre – Le Mans, at 50%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Auxerre win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Le Mans win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Le Mans, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.72 for Auxerre, 1.17 for Le Mans.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Auxerre wins; above it, Le Mans wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Auxerre goals in rows, Le Mans goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Auxerre v Le Mans?
Auxerre, at 50%. The full split is Auxerre 50%, draw 25%, Le Mans 25%.
What is the most likely score in Auxerre v Le Mans?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Auxerre v Le Mans?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Auxerre and 1.17 for Le Mans.
Will both teams score in Auxerre v Le Mans?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Auxerre keep a clean sheet or Le Mans fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.