Ligue 1Sunday, October 18 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
Angers SCO – Olympique Marseille
Angers SCO
7th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.21
Olympique Marseille
17th · attack 1.37 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Olympique Marseille favourites for Angers SCO – Olympique Marseille, at 53%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Angers SCO win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Olympique Marseille win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.97 goals for Angers SCO and 1.66 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.97 for Angers SCO, 1.66 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Angers SCO wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Angers SCO goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Angers SCO v Olympique Marseille?
Olympique Marseille, at 53%. The full split is Angers SCO 22%, draw 26%, Olympique Marseille 53%.
What is the most likely score in Angers SCO v Olympique Marseille?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Angers SCO v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 0.97 for Angers SCO and 1.66 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Angers SCO v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Angers SCO keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.