Ligue 1Sunday, October 25 · 05:15 PM · 8th matchday
Angers SCO – Lorient
Angers SCO
7th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.21
Lorient
12th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Lorient favourites for Angers SCO – Lorient, at 37% — but only 2.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 05:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Angers SCO win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Lorient win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.18 goals for Angers SCO and 1.23 for Lorient, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.18 for Angers SCO, 1.23 for Lorient.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Angers SCO wins; above it, Lorient wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Angers SCO goals in rows, Lorient goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Angers SCO v Lorient?
Lorient, at 37%. The full split is Angers SCO 34%, draw 29%, Lorient 37%.
What is the most likely score in Angers SCO v Lorient?
1–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Angers SCO v Lorient?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.18 for Angers SCO and 1.23 for Lorient.
Will both teams score in Angers SCO v Lorient?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Angers SCO keep a clean sheet or Lorient fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.