Thursday 5 November · 21:00
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Olympique Marseille
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.01
Olympique Marseille
10th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.03
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Olympique Marseille, at 60%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Olympique Marseille win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.21 goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.24 for Olympique Marseille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.21 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1.24 for Olympique Marseille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins; above it, Olympique Marseille wins.
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen \ Olympique Marseille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in rows, Olympique Marseille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique Marseille?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 60%. The full split is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 60%, draw 19%, Olympique Marseille 21%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique Marseille?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique Marseille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.21 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.24 for Olympique Marseille.
Will both teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Olympique Marseille?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep a clean sheet or Olympique Marseille fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
